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Nouriel Roubini was right ...Roubini warned that there was a monstrous bubble in the housing market and that the bursting of that bubble would cause much of the financial system to collapse. And so it has turned out, with even the most seemingly outlandish of Roubini's predictions matched or even exceeded by reality. How did he do it? For the first decade of his career, Roubini, 51, was a well-regarded but hardly renowned macro economist. When the Asian financial crisis struck in 1997, however, he created a Web page - the forerunner of his subscription service, RGE Monitor - that became the go-to place for anyone trying to keep up with the flood of news, data and economic analysis ...His warnings are based on sophisticated modeling and careful data analysis and have often proved right - not just in general but in detail ...Remember, people dismissed Cassandra's dire prophecies - until they all came true' - Paul Krugman, "Time" '100 Most Influential People in the Word 2009'.

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Aldous Huxley once observed that "the charm of history and its enigmatic lesson consist in the fact that, from age to age, nothing changes and yet everything is completely different." While the recent crisis shared much in common with past crises, many of its causes were unique, or at the very least, they played a bigger role in the twenty-first-century global financial system than they did in the past.

Marx's ideas, which are far more sophisticated than this precis suggests, remain controversial. But what matters here is that Marx was the first thinker to see capitalism as inherently unstable and prone to crisis. In his estimation, capitalism is chaos incarnate; it will inevitably plunge into the abyss, taking the economy with it......his larger point -- that crisis is endemic to capitalism -- is a hugely imporntant insight: after Marx, economists had to reckon with the posiibility that capitalism contains the seeds of its own demise.

Keynes realized: in a collapse like the Great Depression, the "animal spirits" of capitalism, the "spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction," would wither away, he thought, even when there were profits to be made. Keynes recognized that economic decision making isn't merely a rational mathmatical calculus; it is impulsive and conditioned by events, uncertain and contingent. "If the animal spirits are dimmed and the spontaneous optimism falters," he observed, "leaving us to depend on nothing but a mathematical expectation, enterprise will fade and die."

Accoring to Minsky, instability originates in the very financial institutions that make capitalism possible. "Implicit in [Keynes's] analysis," he wrote, "is a view that the capitalist economy is fundamentally flawed. This flaw exists because the financial system necessary for capitalist vitality and vigor -- which translates entrepreneurial animal spirits into effective demand for investment -- contains the potential for runaway expectation, powered by an investment boom." This runaway expansion, Minsky explained, can readily grind to a halt because "accumulated financial changes render the financial system fragile."

If Keynes advanced a version of capitalism that might occasionally become imbalanced (but could readily be stabilized with government intervention), Schumpeter believed instability to be the necessary consequence of the kind of innovation that made capitalism possible in the first place.

Instead of letting weak, overleveraged banks, corporations, and even households perish in a burst of creative destruction, thereby allowing the strong to survive and thrive, governments around the world have meddled, creating an economy of the living dead: zombie banks that cling to life with endless lines of credit from central banks; zombie firms like General Motors and Chrysler that depend on government ownership for their continued survival; and zombie households across the United States, kept alive by legislation that keeps creditors at bay and that spares them from losing homes they could not afford in the first place.

书籍介绍

Nouriel Roubini was right ...Roubini warned that there was a monstrous bubble in the housing market and that the bursting of that bubble would cause much of the financial system to collapse. And so it has turned out, with even the most seemingly outlandish of Roubini's predictions matched or even exceeded by reality. How did he do it? For the first decade of his career, Roubini, 51, was a well-regarded but hardly renowned macro economist. When the Asian financial crisis struck in 1997, however, he created a Web page - the forerunner of his subscription service, RGE Monitor - that became the go-to place for anyone trying to keep up with the flood of news, data and economic analysis ...His warnings are based on sophisticated modeling and careful data analysis and have often proved right - not just in general but in detail ...Remember, people dismissed Cassandra's dire prophecies - until they all came true' - Paul Krugman, "Time" '100 Most Influential People in the Word 2009'.